Reading Through Modi’s Unfolding Design in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK)
Reading Through Modi’s Unfolding Design in Indian Occupied
# Tags: Indian Occupied Kashmir, India, Farooq Abdullah, Omar Abdullah, Modi, Mehbooba Mufti, Indian Design in Indian Occupied Kashmir, Resistance by Kashmiris
Brigadier (Retd.) Dr. Ahsan ur Rahman Khan
- The Preamble.
- Sources of Information for This Analysis.
- Revocation of Detention Order Relating to Farooq Abdullah.
- Political Allegiance to India of IOK’s Muslim Political Leaders.
- First Interview of A.S. Dulat dated 27 August 2019.
- Second Interview of A.S. Dulat dated 14 March 2020.
- Final Inferences
It is worth noting that somehow the 13th of this month’s ‘one-act’ episode of the release and setting free of the detained Kashmiri leader Farooq Abdullah, by RSS/BJP Indian government, has not been seriously discussed and analysed by our media. He was one of those thousands of Kashmiri Muslims who were arrested, jailed, and detained when in August last year Modi’s RSS/BJP Indian government militarily annexed Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) and applied the complete lockdown of IOK (further details of extreme inhuman Indian brutalities on IOK Muslims are already known).
(There is therefore certainly an aspect of strangeness relating to the release of Farooq Abdullah, which demands critical examination).
Sources of Information for This Analysis
For the purpose of this analysis reliance is basically placed upon the credible information obtained from the following very authentic sources:-
- The document of Government of Jammu and Kashmir Revocation of Detention Order dated 13- 03- 2020, under which Farooq Abdullah has been released from detention.
- First interview of A.S. Dulat (Amarjit Singh Dulat), published by India’s independent Think Tank The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy on 27 August 2019.
- Second, video interview of A.S. Dulat (Amarjit Singh Dulat) by the well-known Indian News Website The Wire, dated 14 March 2020.
About A.S. Dulat it is worth keeping in mind that he is an Indian Police Service officer. He served in Kashmir as Joint Director in the Intelligence Bureau (IB) from 1988 to 1990, later he was promoted to special director of IB. In 1999 he became chief of India’s premier intelligence agency RAW. On retirement, he joined India’s PMO (previously called prime minister’s secretariat), advising on Kashmir affairs from 2001 to 2004. He is member of India’s National Security Advisory Board. He is regarded as one of India’s leading experts on Jammu & Kashmir (1).
It is also worth highlighting that A.S. Dulat, with his long intelligence professional background (of IB and Raw) particularly related to IOK, and since long being part/adviser of India’s national security policy/decision making system (now headed by the trio – PM Modi, president of BJP and home minister Amit Shah, and national security adviser Ajit Doval), certainly had/still has complete knowledge of India’s RSS/BJP Modi government’s design relating to IOK. In his aforementioned interviews (both were quite lengthy) he was certainly very cautious of guarding the ‘inside information’, yet many of his answers still provided most revealing information in both these interviews. Those answers, along with the inferred observations, where necessary, are being presented in this paper.
Revocation of Detention Order Relating to Farooq Abdullah
Farooq Abdullah was detained under the much controversial Jammu and Kashmir Public Safety Act, which gives unbridled powers to the government to arrest, detain, any person considered to be a threat to public safety. That obviously meant that Farooq Abdullah was considered by the government in IOK to be a threat to public safety. He remained so detained for last about seven months including two extensions; and then suddenly his detention order was revoked, and he has been set free. In that context, two important points to ponder upon are: (a) How come so suddenly and just ‘out of the blue’ he became no more a ‘threat to public safety’? The order (copy given below) for revocation of his earlier detention order gives no clue to that. It simply mentions that the detention order issued last year is revoked; and (b) His detention order had been extended a second time for three months on 11th March 2020, and then suddenly revoked just after two days on 13th March 2020 by the same government in IOK. How just in two days such a complete reversal came about in the confirmed status of Farooq Abdullah from being ‘a threat to public safety’ to ‘not a threat to public safety’?
(That sudden change clearly indicates that the government in IOK most certainly applied that change on orders from union (central) government in Delhi).
(Courtesy: Tweet by Rohit Kansal, Civil Servant IAS; Pr Secy Planning J&K LSE, IIM Kolkata; @kansalrohit69. Mar 13 — https://twitter.com/kansalrohit69)
Political Allegiance to India of IOK’s Muslim Political Leaders
In the context of understanding this action of government in IOK of rather ‘surreptitiously’ releasing Farooq Abdullah, as a first step, the political allegiance to India of IOK’s Muslim political leaders has to be kept in mind. The long chain of those – Sheikh Abdullah, his son Farooq Abdulah, his grandson Omar Abdullah; as also Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and his daughter Mehbooba Mufti – have been/are politically ‘India-aligned’. Sheikh Abdullah was the first prime minister of state of Jammu and Kashmir (IOK) when India obtained its accession. Later from 1974 till his death he was the chief minister (CM) of IOK. Remaining of this chain of politicians had their tenure as CM of IOK, some more than once. Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, besides being twice CM of IOK, also once was the home minister of India. Farooq Abdullah has been the CM of IOK several times since 1982, India’s union (central) minister between 2009 and 2014, five times parliamentarian and member of even the current Indian parliament (Lok Sabha). Omar Abdullah has also been CM of IOK, member of India’s Lok Sabha, and India’s union (central) minister of state for external (foreign) affairs.
Sheikh Abdullah helped India a great deal in supporting India’s case of IOK’s accession to India to the extent of supporting India’s case in United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The vehemence of his pro-India and anti-Pakistan declared stances can be gauged from his speech which he delivered in UNSC’s debate on IOK issue on 5 February 1948, the excerpts of which has been published by SATP from UN record . In that context some of his assertions made in that speech worth noting are: (a) “I and my organization never believed in the formula that Muslims and Hindus form separate nations. We do not believe in the two-nation theory”; (b) “We should prove before the Security Council that Kashmir and the people of Kashmir have lawfully and constitutionally acceded to the Dominion of India, and Pakistan has no right to question that accession”; (c) and while blaming Pakistan for supporting the tribal lashkars, who invaded IOk to prevent invading Indian military achieving its objective of occupying Kashmir, Sheikh Abdullah accused that “at that time Pakistan felt that it could, within a week, conquer the entire Jammu and Kashmir State”; and not only that, he went on to abuse the 1948 leadership of Pakistan, declaring “I had thought all along that the world had got rid of Hitlers and Goebbels, but, from what has happened and what is happening in my poor country, I am convinced that they have only transmigrated their souls into Pakistan…” (2).
(The question therefore arises, if these aforementioned IOK Muslim political leaders (Sheiks and Muftis) were/are so committedly ‘India–affiliates’ then why Farooq Abdullah, Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti were/are being kept jailed, detained for last about seven months like those IOK Muslim politicians who resist Indian occupation of IOK ?)
(Another question which also arises is what is/has been the Indian design relating to IOK, from the time of initiation of that design, and how is it expected to unfold?)
The credible answers to these questions can be deduced from the two aforementioned interviews of A.S. Dulat (Amarjit Singh Dulat).
First Interview of A.S. Dulat dated 27 August 2019
It is also noteworthy that this interview was published (3) by India’s independent Think Tank The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy on 27 August 2019, i.e. just two weeks after the 5th August Indian action of militarily annexing IOK.
As for the question – as to why India-affiliated IOK Muslim politicians were also jailed, detained like those IOK Muslim politicians who are anti-India occupation – A.S. Dulat was asked by the interviewer with particular reference to the IOK Muslim politician Sajjad Lone, who was also arrested, detained. A.S. Dulat replied that at one stage “Delhi was keen to have Sajjad Lone as CM. Lone has been close to Delhi”; and that “As for Sajjad, he had to be kept somewhere. Everybody has been kept somewhere. He was their own man. They could have got him to support the removal of the special status. How could he have supported it? As a Kashmiri how can he support it? No Kashmiri can support it. Actually he is better off inside than outside. Outside he would have been branded an absolute traitor apart from being a stooge. He will be a player when the political game begins again”.
(That explanation given by A.S. Dulat the “specialist insider” of Modi government’s IOK policy/decision making team led by the Indian trio (PM Modi, BJP’s president and home minister Amit Shah, and national security adviser Ajit Doval) makes it abundantly clear that
- by arresting, detaining such ‘India-affiliated’ IOK Muslim political leaders Modi government’s purpose was/is to help them in putting up, to the IOK Muslims, a deceptive outward appearance of not being India-affiliate;
- so that these (actually) ‘India-affiliated’ Muslim political leaders can be politically ‘recycled’ to serve India’s purpose when a situation of calm in IOK is achieved to put up the façade of return of electoral political system in the now union territories (UTs) of IOK).
In the context of mentioning those IOK’s Muslim political leaders, who were/are India’s ‘own men’, A.S. Dulat praised Farooq Abdullah in these words: “Of course, let me admit that that I’m a Farooq Abdullah fan, I have the highest respect for him”; “Here is a man who has been Chief Minister thrice, who’s been a Union Minister and who was promised at one stage the Vice-Presidentship of India”, “Vajpayee’s Government had promised him the Vice-Presidentship. I was serving in that Government and I’m witness to it. Farooq being Farooq doesn’t talk about it now”; “I’m saying again, Farooq is a great man. He is by far the tallest of Kashmiri leaders who has stood by India. Not only here, you’d recall he went to the United Nations along with Vajpayee and supported India’s cause. And between Vajpayee and Farooq they won the day for India”.
(This credible information about strong India-affiliation of Farooq Abdullah showed his importance for Modi government in any future political arrangement in IOK).
Disclosing the way these ‘India-affiliate’ IOK Muslim political leaders ‘actually, albeit discretely’ operate in their politics, A.S. Dulat mentioned about Farooq Abdullh that, “it was 2000 or so when the J&K assembly passed a resolution seeking restoration of autonomy, Delhi was angry about it. Because Farooq (Farooq Abdullah, former Chief Minister of J&K and Chairman of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference) had been telling Delhi not to worry. However, his point was that ‘I have to fight an election in 2002 and I must have something”.
(Farooq Abdullah’s plea, that to fight the election he had to have something – to please, albeit deceptively, the IOK voters, showed the actuality of IOK Muslim political leaders like him).
As for the situation in IOK, just two weeks after its military annexation by India, A.S. Dulat admitted that “My fear is that, more than a comparison with the Emergency, the situation today compares with the Partition of the country”; “My only fear is that, the real fear is that, this (removal of special status and reduction to UT) will have reactions. I hope I’m absolutely wrong. Because when we talk about reactions, we do not know what is going to happen. When a new form of terrorism erupts, it tends to move outwards. So what the boys were doing in Srinagar, God alone knows where they will be doing (henceforth)”. And, when reminded by the interviewer about the remarks of a commentator (made at the time of Burhan Wani) that now the boys have no fear of death, A.S. Dulat admitted, “Exactly. You can have the best of intelligence, the best of security but if somebody goes mad and is prepared to die, then what can you do?”.
(This lingering fear of rather ‘terrorising’ reaction, to this scheme of Modi government’s military annexation of IOK, by those of the IOK youth who have got rid of the fear of death, was a serious concern in the minds of persons like A.S. Dulat).
However A.S. Dulat also very significantly reminded that irrespective of the consequences, what has been done to IOK was to be done, being on the agenda of BJP, as dictated by RSS. He asserted, “But if you look at it the other way, it is part of their (BJP’s) manifesto, it is part of their agenda, it was in the offing. Add to this kind of thumping majority that leads to a bit of arrogance, and there’s an inevitability about it. After all, they have to think about Nagpur (RSS Headquarters) also”.
(This last mentioned assertion by A.S. Dulat is of particular significance to note that RSS’ fascist and racist ‘Hindutva’ policy has the dictating position in Indian government’s policies, irrespective of even the foreseen consequences).
To the question, what to do about elections; A.S. Dulat answered, “I don’t think elections can happen so fast. First you have to lift the shutdown which is obviously going to happen very gradually. Very carefully. Then you have to see the reactions. Also when you talk about a shutdown, this is a government shutdown. After this could follow a people’s shutdown”.
(It is due to this aspect of Indian design, that delay in lifting of IOK’s lockdown (or shutdown) has now entered the 8th month, and the Indian government still fears an uprising/serious unrest).
The interviewer pointed out that despite 7,000 arrests, detentions, reports about daily protests and pellet injuries to protesters were still continuing; A.S. Dulat replied, “What I’m thinking, or what I always thought, was that the best way to deal with any problem, any people, is to engage with them even in the worst circumstances”. And, in answer to the next question, he further explained, “Obviously it will not be easy but we have done it in the past, as when we started talking to the militants or terrorists or people (of that persuasion). Their reaction was what is there to talk to you about? I used to say let’s talk about talking.. let us sit across the table and talk about talking. So it requires some doing, you know”. When the interviewer asked Engaging with whom? They are all under arrest; A.S. Dulat answered, “As you start letting them out or even before you start letting them out. There’s no ban on the government meeting or talking to Mehbooba or Omar. You can still talk if you want to talk. We talked in the 90s with the separatists, they were only let out in 1993. For three years we were talking to them when they were in jail. It is easier to talk when the other person is restricted. I’m not worried about the mainstream leaders or the separatists. The scary part is the youngsters who have been blowing themselves up. After all, one of our own boys did Pulwama. If somebody can do that, try and think ..”.
(These explanations/assertions by A.S. Dulat clearly showed that right from the beginning the Indian design was to continue with the lockdown/shutdown and jailing of the thousands of those arrested specially the IOK youth, till under that coercion India could compel them to ‘talk’ on India’s terms).
In another question the interviewer asked, “You said that Kashmiris know that Pakistan is not an option. Do you think that feeling might have changed in the new circumstances?” To this question, A.S. Dulat firmly asserted, “No, Pakistan is not an option even now”. The interviewer further asked whether in the context of the humiliation in the Valley on the downsizing of the State, could that anger translate into a feeling of longing, wishful thinking? A.S. Dulat again firmly asserted, “I don’t think so”.
(A.S. Dulat, being in full knowledge of India’s ultimate policy/decision making hierarchy’s thinking, these assertions are of extreme significance to note, because these reflect high confidence of Modi government in these assertions considered to be the reality. On the other hand, the repeated massive pro-Pakistan demonstrations by IOK Muslims even at times defying the curfew reflect the fact to be contrary. This factor is most likely to be the ultimate deciding factor of the current IOK imbroglio).
In another question the interviewer asked A.S. Dulat whether he envisaged a Hindu chief minister (CM) if there’s delimitation of J & K. In that context, A.S. Dulat replied, “No, not immediately. That will lead to more problems”.
(This straight answer by A.S. Dulat clearly showed that in the Indian design, whenever the situation so much calms down in IOK as to allow re-implanting of the electoral governance, at least in the initial phase, the CM of IOK or CMs of IOK’s union territories will not be Hindus but the India-affiliated ‘re-cycled’ IOK Muslim politicians ).
Second Interview of A.S. Dulat dated 14 March 2020
A.S. Dulat’s second interview confirmed many indications of the Indian design, as discerned from the aforementioned analysis of his first interview; as also indicated the probable further unfolding of Indian design in IOK. This second interview was video-uploaded by the well-known Indian Website The Wire. Some of the important excerpts of this video interview (4), quoting the words of A.S. Dulat himself, are mentioned in the succeeding paragraphs; also mentioning inferred observations where applicable.
I wanted to go and meet Farooq Abdullah. I sought permission from home ministry in Delhi, but I could not get the permission. Then after about three months suddenly somebody from home ministry called me on phone to inform me that I could go and meet Farooq Abdullah in Srinagar. On my return to Delhi, the same evening, the same person from home ministry called me on phone to get the briefing of what all transpired during my talk with Farooq Abdullah.
(This sudden green signal by India’s home ministry to A.S. Dulat to go to Srinagar and talk to Farooq Abdullah, and then getting the briefing about what transpired in the talk, immediately after return of A.S. Dulat from Srinagar, clearly showed that this A.S. Dulat – Farooq Abdullah contact to ‘talk’ was factually the initiation of Modi government’s unfolding design to open dialogue with the ‘India-affiliated’ IOK’s Muslim political leaders).
Meeting took place on 12th February 2020 at about 1 PM (afternoon) and lasted for about an hour. For my movement from airport to his house, I was provided a car by the Intelligence Bureau (IB) in Srinagar.
(Governmental facilitation of his visit discerned).
Farooq Abdullah asked me if I would like to meet Omar (Omar Abdullah) as well; I said I did not have the mission to meet him.
(That was probably so because this meeting was the starting point of this scheme of contacting India-affiliated IOK Muslim political leaders; and Farooq Abdullah was obviously the best choice to become the ‘door-opener’, so meetings with the rest had to come later).
During our talks Farooq Abdullah showed concern about Kashmir that so many people have been locked up; he was a little disturbed about the PSA (India’s Public Safety Act) which was slapped on Omar and Mehbooba (Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti).
(Farooq Abdullah did not make any mention of the tens of thousands of the non-India-affiliated IOK Muslim leaders, men, women and children being jailed and tortured. There was no such mention even in any published news by other media outlets).
Farooq Abdullah also mentioned that he would like to come to Delhi and speak to the (Indian) parliament. On the query from the interviewer “by coming to Delhi and speaking to the parliament, could it be possible that he might talk to the government”; A.S. Dulat said that he (A.S. Dulat) was not sure and that it depended upon the approach of the government. To this, the interviewer asked “did you feel that if government of India takes the first step, will Farooq Abdullah respond”; A.S. Dulat emphatically replied “he had always responded”.
(This confidence so emphatically, albeit indirectly, reflected by A.S. Dulat provides another strong indication that Modi government has now started unfolding the phase of its design to start preparing the ground for re-initiation of political process in IOK by marshaling the ‘re-cycled’ India-affiliated IOK Muslim political leaders like Farooq and Omar Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, Sajjad Lone, et al. to plant an India-pliant government comprising of them in IOK ).
On the query from the interviewer “Do you think that the permission given by home ministry to you to go and meet Afarooq Abdullah indicated that the government was keen to start some process through your talk with him”; to this, A.S. Dulat replied that “let us put it this way that if the government was not interested in Farooq (Farooq Abdullah), I couldn’t have made that trip to Srinagar”. To another query, he confirmed that this meeting was in the knowledge of India’s national security adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval.
(That provides further confirmation of the fact that A.S. Dulat’s meeting with Farooq Abdullah was the first step of Modi government’s initiation of the dialogue with India-affiliated IOK Muslim leaders, as mentioned above).
During the interview A.S. Dulat categorically asserted that even the present Indian government is more likely to be more comfortable with Abdullas (Farooq and Omar Abdullah). To that, the interviewer asked “do you think that even today the Indian government wants some sort of comfort with Farooq Abdullah and the National Conference (his political party)”; to that, A.S. Dulat replied, “certainly with the Abdullahs”; to that answer the interviewer quickly added the next question “and that is behind this release (of Faroq Abdullah)”; A.S. Dulat replied, “could be”.
To a query by the interviewer, A.S. Dulat did not rule out the possibility that a process of Indian government’s ‘talks’ with Mehbooba Mufti and Omar Abdullah might have already begun.
(This is more probable to be underway behind the scene).
To another query about Omar Abdullah becoming the next chief minister, A.S. Dulat mentioned that somehow Delhi has always been more comfortable with Omar Abdullah; and then he asserted that Omar Abdullah will be the next chief minister whenever the elections are held.
(This appears likely).
About the situation in Kashmir as seen by A.S. Dulat during his visit to Srinagar on the day he met farooq Abdullah, he mentioned that the city of Srinagar was normal, no protests. He also gave his opinion that it appears that with the passage of time Kashmiris have reconciled with the abrogation of Article 370; and that the issue troubling the Kashmiris now is how to get back to normal life – and then he expressed his opinion that they can get back to normal life only when the political process is revived.
(A.S. Dulat’s opinion that “with the passage of time Kashmiris have reconciled with the abrogation of Article 370”, may be in line with the thinking of the inner circle of Modi government; however it is not supported much by the ground realities, specially the mindset of those angry IOK masses particularly the youth who have even got rid of the fear of death).
A.S. Dulat also mentioned that a demand (from Farooq Abdullah) will come up very soon for the return of statehood of Kashmir, which may be accepted.
(If at all that demand of Farooq Abdullah is accepted by Modi government, that may be after lot of bargaining, and that too without return of Article 370 (special status of IOK) to the state. That may be done by Modi government to assist its chosen IOK Muslim political leaders to put up the façade of being ‘champion of Kashmiri cause’ and thus win the next election to form an India-pliant government).
A.S. Dulat accepted that radicalism in Kashmir is on the increase since last 3-4 months. He also mentioned about the developing mindset and anger of Kashmiri youth, quoting them what they say is ‘shahadat for Allah’. He also said that this radicalism is spreading and infiltrating in the Services, and Police, etc.
(Note that this fear, mentioned earlier also (his interview of 27 August last year) by A.S. Dulat, is a reality, as confirmed by him now. Additionally, A.S. Dulat this time admitted that since last 3-4 months radicalism in IOK is increasing, as also infiltrating in Police and other services. This admitted ground reality refutes the aforementioned opinion of A.S. Dulat (most likely also of Modi government’s inner circle), that with the passage of time Kashmiris have reconciled with the abrogation of Article 370. This reality also puts in serious doubt a comfortable success of Modi government in its plan to arrange elections to plant its chosen government in IOK).
Asked about the foreign terrorists, A.S. Dulat clarified that in the recent encounters all those who were killed (by Indian forces) were local boys.
(That is the most authentic negation, ‘from horse’s mouth’, of the Indian propaganda of Pakistani infiltrators’ terrorism in IOK; as also the proof of the real anti-India ‘pulse of the masses’ of IOK).
However, he also gave his assessment that when the National Conference (political party of Abdullahs) gets the political hold, the elements like Jamaat-e-Islami will have no option but to support National Conference.
(In view of the abovementioned undeniable ground realities, this assessment given by A.S. Dulat doesn’t appear to be probable).
About the newly formed Jammu & Kashmir Apni Party, A.S. Dulat admitted, “obviously this is a King’s Party”, but “it is no substitute for the National Conference”; in fact “its leader Altaf Bukhari spoke well about Omar Abdullah”, probably for gaining a political alliance with National Conference.
The aforementioned authentically credible information, as also the observations inferred from that information, have amply clarified the details of the RSS/BJP Modi government’s design about military annexation of IOK at the time of initiation of that design and its subsequent/further unfolding.
Modi government’s design was/is to lockdown (shutdown) IOK for a prolonged period, to continue with extreme military brutalities to crush the will of IOK Muslim majority to resist; and then, having browbeaten the IOK Muslims to accept the fait accompli, re-implant the India-pliant government in IOK.
That design of Modi government was/is being guided by two of the major factors: (a) Firstly, India’s BJP party is actually just the political façade of India’s RSS organisation; and RSS organistion, of which Modi is a life member, is unflinchingly committed to the philosophy of ‘Hindutva’. Philosophy of ‘Hindutva’ is a complete replica of the racist and fascist ideologies of Adolf Hitler of Germany and Benito Mussolini of Italy. RSS/BJP had since long nurtured the design of ethnic cleansing of non-Hindus (particularly Muslims and Christians), like Adolf Hitler’s ethnic cleansing of Jews. When, at long last, in the elections in 2019 RSS/BJP first time got that much strong a governmental strength with which they could apply that design, they did it with full intensity. (b) Secondly, it was obvious right from the beginning that Modi government, prior to launching this design, had obtained the tacit approval of US, EU powers as also certain Muslim countries which prefer economic interests in India even at the cost of such racial extremism and extreme violations of human rights committed by India. That is why US, those powers and countries are still remaining acquiesced merely showing ‘concern’. Consequently emboldened, Modi government is continuing with its extremely inhuman design since about eight months now.
Because of these two factors, it is almost certain that Modi government will continue with, and will try to complete, the application of this design, as was also emphasised by A.S. Dulat in his aforementioned first interview (of 27 August 2019) “irrespective of the consequences, what has been done to IOK was to be done, being on the agenda of BJP, as dictated by RSS”.
Modi government is most likely now to commence unfolding the next phase of the design i.e. the release of the India-affiliated IOK Muslim politicians for marshaling them for the elections, whenever possible, and with them to form an India-pliant government through that election. For this purpose, Farooq and Omar Abdullah’s party National Conference is most certain to be in the lead role, along with Mehbooba Mufti’s party Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The newly formed/created ‘King’s Party’ Jammu & Kashmir Apni Party will also certainly try to be part of this India-affiliates’ group, so as to try and get (in Shakespearean phraseology) its ‘pound of flesh’ in the political power game.
All through this process, the ‘non-India-affiliate’ IOK Muslim political leaders, as also the IOK Muslim masses, are most likely to be kept jailed, and brutally oppressed by Modi government to suppress the voice of opposition.
Besides that, Modi government appears obsessed with the certainty of its assessment – as also opined by A.S. Dulat in his second interview (of 14 March 2020) – that “it appears that with the passage of time Kashmiris have reconciled with the abrogation of Article 370”. On the other hand, however, that assessment is strongly negated by the aforementioned ground realities in IOK. Yet, the ‘Hindutva’ driven RSS/BJP leadership as also the multitude of RSS members are least likely to have second thoughts, even if they ultimately meet the same fate as was ultimately met by Adolf Hitler and his Nazi Party, and of Benito Mussolini and his National Fascist Party.
However, in the context of trying to discern the most likely forthcoming scenario in IOK, it is important to also keep in mind the high probability of a sudden outburst of the already brewing widespread anti–India reaction by IOK Muslims, particularly by the youth. Its fear was admitted by A.S. Dulat in his first interview (27 August last year). Even then he had expressed fear from such IOK Muslim masses who by then had got rid of fear of death and asserted/assert ‘shadat for Allah’. About this foreseen fear A.S. Dulat had also exclaimed “if somebody goes mad and is prepared to die, then what can you do”. And now in his second interview (14 March 2020) he has further admitted that since the last 3–4 months this radicalism is not only spreading but also infiltrating in the Police and other Services. This factor clearly points to the high probability of an ultimate widespread uprising of IOK Muslim masses against India’s military occupation, even at the cost of facing a bloodbath.
In the same context, it must also be kept in mind that out of the Muslim countries initially the governments and people of Pakistan, Turkey and Malaysia, had acted strongly in international forums against Indian military annexation of IOK. However, the recent repeated massive public protests in Pakistan, Bangla Desh, and Afghanistan against India’s continuing anti–Muslim atrocities have clearly indicated that these Indian anti-Muslim atrocities are becoming unbearable for the multitude of these masses. It is true that Pakistan government prefers a peaceful solution, and the governments of Bangla Desh and Afghanistan are India–friendly. However, those who are aware of the historically ingrained psyche of the masses of these countries will find it too difficult to rule out the possibility that, if these Indian atrocities continue then, there can be sudden violent reaction against India by these masses with such ferocity that even their own governments will find it too difficult to control. That scenario is most likely to put India too in the massive bloodbath. It is unfortunate that this possibility of widespread bloodbath reflects comparatively more chances of actualising, keeping in view the ‘military–power drunk’ and ‘Hindutva–driven’ irrational stubbornness of RSS/BJP leadership.
(2). Excerpts of Sheikh Abdullah’s February 5, 1948 speech in the UN Security Council https://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/jandk/documents/papers/excerpts_of_sheikh_abdullah%27s_february_5_1948_speech.htm
(4). Indian News Website The Wire’s Interview with A.S. Dulat “Exclusive: Former Raw Chief Dulat on the Govt’s Backchannel to Farooq Abdullah”